New Models Built - Paper Trading Starts Tuesday.

The models have been built using the latest data for the 10 leverage ETFs.

Based on what I have seen during the last 3 weeks of testing is that there will be very little trading.  
Most likely the calls will be monthly for most of the ETFS.

Here are the results using a start date of 2013-01-01

Symbol	Backtest $	Buy & Hold $	Previous Call	Execute Date	Current Call	Execute Date
BIB	33,576.45	32,763.86	SELL	2014-03-19**	BUY	2014-04-28**
ERX	26,159.17	25,257.91	SELL	2014-01-07**	BUY	2014-01-24**
FAS	20,109.48	24,167.40	SELL	2014-04-02**	BUY	2014-04-25**
MIDU	25,156.36	24,948.73	SELL	2014-04-22**	BUY	2014-04-28**
SPXL	21,527.27	25,346.83	SELL	2014-04-02**	BUY	2014-04-07**
TECL	24,508.88	22,497.35	SELL	2014-03-31**	BUY	2014-05-07**
TNA	26,329.15	24,746.31	SELL	2014-03-18**	BUY	2014-05-15**
UGAZ	25,489.76	10,431.86	BUY	2014-01-09**	SELL	2014-02-04**
UGLD	14,118.30	3,761.09	SELL	2014-04-04**	BUY	2014-05-28**
URTY	27,938.29	24,969.03	SELL	2014-04-01**	BUY	2014-05-15**

** - before model build date of 2014-06-30

Changing Algorithm

For previous followers of this blog - you can see I have changed the blog's name.  Why?  - the last algorithm didn't work.  

Here's my latest algorithm - a 3 function cross-over based on:

1. Price Tipping Point
2. MACD
3. RSI.

I track the outcome of the calls in a simple database.  Tracking will commence on the first trading day of July.

Reset - A Change To The Models

Moving Average Tipping Point

Version 2.

Why Reset: The previous version of this algorithm was generating:

1.  too many quick calls (buy/sell calls occurred within a one day period over and over).
2.  some the the calls repeated day after day (a sell was followed by a sell).
3.  previous day calls were changed during model runs (for instance on a Tuesday there may have been a buy call on the next days run Tuesday would either say sell or the call was completely lost).

 

Biotech Sell Signal Again.

So in the paper account I will be selling Biotechnology(BIB),

Where The Models Presently Stand

Symbol	Previous Call	Execute Date	Current Call	Execute Date
BIB	BUY	2014-06-03	SELL	Today
ERX	SELL	2014-06-03	BUY	Next Day*
FAS	BUY	2014-06-02	SELL	Previous Day
MIDU	SELL	2014-06-03	BUY	Next Day*
SPXL	SELL	2014-05-21	BUY	2014-05-27
TECL	BUY	Previous Day	SELL	Next Day*
TNA	SELL	2014-05-16	BUY	2014-05-21
UGAZ	BUY	2014-06-02	SELL	Next Day*
UGLD	BUY	2014-05-15	SELL	2014-05-19
URTY	SELL	2014-06-03	BUY	Next Day*

^* tentative - based on 11:23 AM numbers.

Technology, Energy, Russell 2000, & Mid Caps' Models Get Bearish.

So in the paper account I will be selling Technology(TECL), Energy(ERX), Russell 2000(URTY), Mid Caps(MIDU),

Where The Models Presently Stand

Symbol	Previous Call	Execute Date	Current Call	Execute Date
BIB	BUY	2014-05-29	SELL	Previous Day
ERX	BUY	2014-05-29	SELL	Today
FAS	SELL	2014-05-30	BUY	Next Day*
MIDU	BUY	2014-05-30	SELL	Today
SPXL	SELL	2014-05-21	BUY	2014-05-27
TECL	BUY	2014-05-29	SELL	Today
TNA	SELL	2014-05-16	BUY	2014-05-21
UGAZ	SELL	2014-05-28	BUY	Previous Day
UGLD	BUY	2014-05-15	SELL	2014-05-19
URTY	BUY	2014-05-30	SELL	Today

^* tentative - based on 1:32 PM numbers.

Model for Nat Gas Says Buy, Biotech Models Says Sell

So in the paper account I will be buying Natural Gas(UGAZ), selling Biotechnology(BIB),

Where The Models Presently Stand

Symbol	Previous Call	Execute Date	Current Call	Execute Date
BIB	BUY	2014-05-29	SELL	Today
ERX	BUY	2014-05-29	SELL	Next Day*
FAS	SELL	2014-05-29	BUY	Next Day*
MIDU	BUY	2014-05-30	SELL	Next Day*
SPXL	SELL	2014-05-21	BUY	2014-05-27
TECL	BUY	2014-05-29	SELL	Next Day*
TNA	SELL	2014-05-16	BUY	2014-05-21
UGAZ	SELL	2014-05-28	BUY	Today
UGLD	BUY	2014-05-15	SELL	2014-05-19
URTY	BUY	2014-05-30	SELL	Next Day*